NBA preview part 2 - Western Conference

I couldn't go to sleep. I was too anxious to post this. Enjoy. Playoff preview coming up.

jake

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Northwest Division
No. 1 – Utah Jazz; 47-35 (6th in the West)
Jerry Sloan could be an annual pick for Coach of the Year the way he squeezes the most out of his roster. An average basketball fan would be hard-pressed to name a player on the Jazz’ roster, yet Sloan continues to keep his team respectable. This season the Jazz will return to the playoffs thanks to a roster of unselfish players hungry to find that success. Utah is very strong and deep at point guard, with Deron Williams running the show and veteran Derek Fisher as well as rookie Dee Brown, who alongside Williams nearly led Illinois to a national championship. Versatile big man Andrei Kirilenko will be able to do even more this season, playing small forward, and his backup, Matt Harpring, could win the Sixth Man of the Year award. The wild card is Carlos Boozer. He hasn’t settled in yet in Salt Lake City after leaving Cleveland. With Mehmet Okur playing a strong center and creating all kinds of matchup problems with his deadly three-point trigger, a healthy, stalwart Boozer could make the Jazz a title contender.

No. 2 – Denver Nuggets; 44-38 (8th in the West)
This should be a breakout year for Carmelo Anthony, who has watched his 2004 Draft classmate Wade win a championship and LeBron get all the props. ‘Melo started to show signs of becoming one of the league’s premier players toward the end of last season as the Nuggets made a belated run to the playoffs and he played well in Japan at the World Championships. Unfortunately for ‘Melo, he won’t have enough support to make this team’s fortunes any better than last year’s. With Kenyon Martin and coach George Karl not seeing eye-to-eye and Marcus Camby injury prone, the frontcourt could atrophy at any point during the season. Fundamentally sound point guards Andre Miller and Early Boykins won’t be able to direct this team to more than a brief appearance in the playoffs.

No. 3 – Minnesota Timberwolves; 40-42 (10th in the West)
Poor KG. It looks as if his stay in Minnesota will never lead to more than playoff disappointments. And this year the Timberwolves won’t even make the post-season. Not with Mark Blunt starting at center and little behind him, aside from offensive liability Mark Madsen and unproven rookie Craig Smith. The bright spot for this team could be rookie Randy Foye, who should battle for ROY honors. He’ll get plenty of playing time, playing behind the selfish Ricky Davis. If he and Smith have big rookie seasons, KG might be convinced to return for another Minnesota winter. Otherwise, he’d be smart to get out of town come summertime.

No. 4 – Portland Trailblazers; 26-56 (14th in the West)
I might be the only person not picking the Trailblazers to finish dead last in the West. Something tells me they’ll do just enough to finish ahead of the falling Supersonics. For one, they do have talent, they just need to find a way to harness it. Also, there are distractions in Seattle, with the constant talk of the team moving. As hard as it is to believe, there haven’t been any off-the-court incidents recently. Look for rookie Brandon Roy to content for the award that is his given name and for Zach Randolph to put up double-double numbers. Jamaal Magloire is a very solid big man off the bench. By season’s end, things might be looking up in Portland.

No. 5 – Seattle Supersonics; 25-57 (15th in the West)
By the end of the season, one thing is certain and another not so cemented. The certainty: the Sonics will be packing their bags for the off-season as others begin the playoffs. The uncertainty: they won’t know where they’ll be returning to for the 2007 season. Seattle? Oklahoma? We’ll see. The players can say that’s not a distraction, but it is. Not knowing if you’ll have to uproot your family to another city isn’t something you want to live with for a full season. Seattle, with Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, will win some shootouts, but with an absolutely awful defense, they won’t be able to stop anyone. Unless Chris Wilcox clones himself four times, the Sonics will give up over 100 points in 70 games this season. That’s a recipe for implosion.

Southeast Division
No. 1 - Dallas Mavericks; 57-25 (2nd in the West)
As with Miami in the East, the Mavericks return all their key players – except for swingman Marquis Daniels, who is basically a mini Josh Howard. So as long as Howard stays healthy, they shouldn’t miss Daniels too much. In exchange for him, they got Anthony Johnson, a veteran point guard, from the Pacers. Unlike Miami, this team is hungrier than last year to get that title. And they realize this might be their last chance. Jerry Stackhouse, a key bench player, is on his last legs. We’ll see early on if the Mavs have been able to put that Finals’ collapse behind them. Even if they did, however, it won’t be easy to get back to the Finals. Phoenix with Amare Stoudemire will present an admirable challenge, and there’s another team in Texas – with a man named Duncan – that seems to win championships every other year.

No. 2 – San Antonio Spurs; 55-27 (3rd in the West)
This team was within a bad foul by Manu Ginobli of making the Finals. And Tim Duncan didn’t even have his usual consistently great season. Everybody returns this season except for big man Nazr Mohammed, who’s trying to fill Big Ben’s shoes in Big D. But let’s be honest, has it really mattered – since the Admiral’s departure - who plays alongside TD upfront? Not really. When he’s at his best, he’ll get the job done with a Bill Weddington at center. There has to be a sense of urgency within this team to send out its veterans victorious. Robert Horry, Bruce Bowen, Brent Barry and Michael Finley are all in the twilight of their careers and might just call it quits if they can win another title (or Barry’s and Finley’s first championship). Another key will be the stamina of Ginobli. Last season he seemed worn down by playoff time, undoubtedly exhausted by his year-round schedule. If Gregg Popovich is smart, he’ll make sure to limit Ginobli’s minutes a bit during the regular season so he can get a fresh Manu come April, May and June.

No. 3 – Houston Rockets; 47-35 (7th in the West)
This team is loaded with talented, proven players. So why am I not picking the Rockets higher in the West? One word: injuries. Tracey McGrady and Yao Ming only played together for 30-something games last season. That can’t happen again. Yes, Bonzi Wells was a huge off-season acquisition. But how happy is he going to be coming off the bench? And he has also dealt with injury issues in the past. If the Rockets stay healthy the entire season, they could win the division. If they suffer a repeat of last year, they could miss the playoffs. That’s the long and the short of the matter. You also have to worry about the center position, where behind Yao, veteran Dikembe Mutumbo is Houston’s only other center. Mutumbo is on his last legs and is half the player he was five years ago. Houston might regret not finding a young, athletic center to back up the big man.

No. 4 – New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets; 42-40 (9th in the West)
A plethora of expert are high on this team, and they have some good reasons. Reigning ROY Chris Paul will only be better. Power forward David West is becoming the next Robert Horry. They signed deadly outside shooter Peja Stojakovich, who will likely give Paul dozens of assists. But in the powerful Western Conference, I still don’t see this team in the playoffs. Not yet. They’re one piece away. They traded away veteran team leader P.J. Brown to the Bulls for Tyson Chandler, who will be the key to their success or failure. Chandler has yet to prove himself as a consistent offensive force in the league. If he becomes one, this team will make the playoffs. I don’t see it happens. Not yet.

No. 5 – Memphis Grizzlies; 31-51 (13th in the West)
No Pau, no punch for the Grizz. That’s the basic parable here. With big man Pau Gasol out for probably the first two months of the season, recovering from foot surgery, this team will struggle mightily. There will then be a period of Gasol trying to regain form and mold again with his teammates. And finally, by the middle of February, this will be a .500 team. Maybe. By then, any hopes of a successful season will be in flames. But it will be interesting to see rookie Rudy Gay. It’s obvious the versatile small forward has a wealth of potential, but he was criticized in college for at times appearing non-responsive on the court. This will be his proving season. Of all the rookies, I think he might have the most potential.

Pacific Division
No. 1 – Phoenix Suns; 60-22 (1st in the West)
Every NBA expert is talking about the return of Amare Stoudemire and how he’ll rebound from last season’s knee surgery. I’ll do the same, but first let me address the exit of a player that I think will hurt the Suns. Although he could be mercurial at times, Tim Thomas was a very solid player for the Suns in the playoffs last season. If not for his clutch 3-pointer at the end of regulation in Game 6 of the first round against the Lakers, the Suns would have been done right there. Thomas left for the Clippers, and the Suns didn’t find anyone to replace him. Instead, they signed Marcus Banks, an unproven point guard. And they didn’t even need a backup PG. Leandro Barbosa was also very impressive in last year’s postseason. Now to Amare. If he regains his form of two seasons ago, this team will be very difficult to beat – regardless of its defensive ineptitude. I don’t think he will. He’ll be a solid 20-and-10 player, but he won’t be indomitable. And neither will the Suns come playoff time.

No. 2 – Los Angeles Clippers; 52-30 (4th in the West)
It was difficult to pick between the Lakers and Clippers for the fourth spot. The main reason the Clippers will edge the Lakers is they have better supporting players around their star. And, yes, Elton Brand is a star. He just doesn’t get the pub Kobe does. He’s consistent, he never misses games, and he brings a positive attitude to the locker room. He along with the interminable Sam Cassell would be enough to get a team to the playoffs. But this squad is loaded with talent. Almost too much talent. Everyone except Vladimir Radmonovich returns from last season, and he’s replaced by Tim Thomas, who I think is better. With a year under his belt, Shaun Livingston will feel more comfortable running the offense when he spells Cassell, and Quinton Ross could be a Sixth Man of the Year candidate. This team is dangerous. Mark my words.

No. 3 – Los Angeles Lakers; 50-32 (5th in the West)
No Kobe, no problems. That’s what the Lakers said the first two games, as they won sans Kobe Bryant. Now he’s back, his boys are more confident, and they’re all hungry to erase from Jack Nicholson’s mind the memory of their collapse during last year’s playoffs. Lamar Odom showed signs last year that he’s ready to step up and be a leader alongside Kobe. Luke Walton might be the best Lakers’ passer since Magic. And Smush Parker will be pushed by rookie Jordan Farmar, making the both of them better. I still don’t see this team as a title contender, however (although Kobe could easily will them victories in games they should lose). Their centers – Andrew Bynum, Chris Mihm and Kwame Brown – are mediocre, and Kobe’s lone backup, Aaron McKie, is slowing down (I didn’t even know he was still in the league). So Kobe will have to play big minutes. This team could win one or two playoff series, but I don’t see them going farther than that.

No. 4 – Sacramento Kings; 38-44 (11th in the West)
They might not admit it, but this team is smarting after losing Bonzi Wells to free agency. He played amazing against the Spurs in the playoffs, giving the defending champs a huge scare. And Ron Artest loved him and vouched inexorably for him to return. You don’t want Mr. Artest to get upset. Bad things can happen. Mike Bibby seemed a little worn down toward the end of last season. But without a strong backup, the Kings’ point guard will likely play big minutes once again. How long will he be able to hold up? A key player for the Kings is Kevin Martin, who made a name for himself in the playoffs with his buzzer-beating layup over Tim Duncan in Game 3 of their first-round series. He has shown flashes of brilliance at times, but I’m still circumspect. He’s undersized, allowing bigger shooting guards to post him up and wear him down. Hopefully for the Kings, Martin will have a big season, allowing fans in Sactown to slowly forget about the man named Bonzi.

No. 5 – Golden State Warriors; 35-47 (12th in the West)
This team is so soft, I could lay my head down on them and fall asleep. With Mike Dunleavy, more of a SF, at power forward, and Troy Murphy at center, no one – and I mean no one – will be afraid to attack the basket. The Warriors are a bad version of the Suns. They don’t play much defense – and that shouldn’t change with the hiring of Don Nelson as coach – and their offense is the amateur version of the Suns.’ Sure, Baron Davis and Jason Richardson will hook up on some alley oops that make SportsCenter, but they won’t do much else. This team will be fun to watch, but not fun to bet on.